We put together this guide to help those considering where best to put their money or time to help our candidates win. Donation leverage takes into account;
- Relative need for funding: (some races are well funded, and some are in need of $$)
- Media market costs; ($$ go further in cheaper media markets), Iowa, e.g.)
- How close is the race? (Can our support get them over the top?)
- Both candidates strength/weaknesses;
- Other factors; Blue wave, GOP blunders, etc.
- How important is this race? One Senate seat flip could make a massive difference in our country, similar with US House seats. However, a flip to blue is important at all levels (HD31, SD16, county, etc.)
The blue wave; hard to factor in, but it may be a tsunami, giving us chances in races we might normally lose. The worse the R’s are, the better our chances. We need to flip 4 red states to control the Senate. Our chances look good, but it will be close in several races. There are lots of house seats, to be flipped but we did not get into them here.
Meaning of the Polling column:
+8 means 8 point lead for the Democrat, e.g., 54-46
Lean R, Lean D, Likely D because that is the best we can estimate for now using various data sources
Local
| Region | Candidate | Polling | Donation Leverage |
| Oregon Governor | Tina Kotek | +4 | Medium high |
| HD31 | Tom Forest | lean R | High |
| HD32 | Cyrus Javadi | lean D | Medium |
| SD16 | Rachel Armitage | lean D | Medium high |
| HD29 | Susan McClain | Likely D | Medium |
| SD15 | Myrna Muñoz | LIkely D | Medium |
Local analysis;
Tom Forest, HD31, would benefit the most from donations. He is trying to flip a red house seat blue, and has little money so far., and no name recognition. It will be close, so a few bucks can go a long way for this important local race.
Next would be Rachel Armitage in SD16. A likely win, but close.
National Senate Races
| State | Candidate | Polling | Donation Leverage |
| N. Carolina | Roy Cooper | +9 | Medium low |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola | +5 | High |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown | tied | Medium- high |
| Iowa | Josh Turek | -2 | High |
| Texas | James Talarico | +1 | Medium high |
| Nebraska | Dan Osborn (Ind.) | no polling so far | Medium high |
| Kentucky | Charles Booker | no polling so far | High |
| Georgia | John Ossoff (Incumbent) | +8 | Medium high |
Florida, S. Carolina are also in play, but are long shots.
If you have questions or would like more advice please contact: Steve Pettengill <foodsavant8@gmail.com>, kathe welch <kathewelch@gmail.com>.